Key takeaways
- The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 keeps Dubai at "elevated risk", with Miami, Seoul, Geneva and Lisbon. Only Zurich and Tokyo are rated high risk.
- Dubai's score rose to 1.16 from 1.09, but UBS also says bubble risk in Dubai has eased since March.
- DLD data shows cooling, not a crash: August 2026 sales fell 36 percent year on year, while the price per sq ft slipped about 3 percent.
- Dubai is still one of the most affordable big cities in the study: about 5 years of income buys a 60 sq m flat, against 11 in London.
- The real thing to watch is supply: about 122,000 homes are scheduled for completion in 2027 and 111,000 in 2028.
Almost every client who called me this week asked the same question: is there a Dubai property bubble? It came back on 22 September, when UBS published its 2026 Global Real Estate Bubble Index and kept Dubai in the "elevated risk" group.
The short answer: the report is a warning about pace, not a crash forecast. Below is what UBS actually said, what Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data shows, and how I read it for buyers.
What did UBS say about Dubai?
UBS scores 23 major cities every year. In 2026 only Zurich and Tokyo are rated high risk. Dubai sits one level below, in the elevated risk group with Miami, Seoul, Geneva and Lisbon.
Dubai's score rose to 1.16 from 1.09 last year, The National reported. But the detail matters. In the year to the second quarter, Dubai home prices rose only 0.4 percent after inflation, and rents fell 4 percent after inflation. Villas (up 5.7 percent) did much better than apartments (up 1.3 percent). UBS itself notes that bubble risk in Dubai has eased since March.
Is there a Dubai property bubble? What DLD data shows
A bubble bursting looks like prices falling hard while everyone rushes for the exit. Here is what the official transaction numbers show instead.
| Dubai, all property types | August 2025 | August 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of sales | 18,749 | 12,018 | Down 36% |
| Value of sales | AED 51.3 billion | AED 28.6 billion | Down 44% |
| Price per sq ft | AED 1,733 | AED 1,687 | Down about 3% |
| Median annual rent | AED 56,700 | AED 58,000 | Up about 2% |
Source: Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data, August 2025 and August 2026. Rounded.
So activity has dropped sharply, but prices have only eased. The price per sq ft is about 7 percent below its April 2026 level of AED 1,822 (DLD data, April to August 2026). Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar said this month he expects an adjustment of 5 to 10 percent and "a nice balance" in 2027, so part of that adjustment may already be behind us.
Keep the bigger picture in mind too. The yearly price per sq ft climbed from AED 1,010 in 2021 to AED 1,671 in 2025, up about 65 percent in five straight years of gains (DLD data, 2021 to 2025). A pause after a run like that is normal. And buyers have not disappeared: about 70 percent of August deals were first sales from developers, mostly off-plan (DLD data, August 2026).
Why Dubai still looks like good value
This is the part of the UBS report that got fewer headlines. A skilled service worker needs about 5 years of income to buy a 60 sq m apartment near the centre of Dubai. The same flat takes 11 years in London and 15 in Hong Kong. Only Toronto and Miami are in a similar range.
UBS even expects some tenants to use the pause in price growth to buy. For my international clients, add no personal income tax and a clear, fixed set of buying costs, and Dubai still compares well with most global cities.
The real risk: the supply wave
If there is one number I would watch, it is new supply. DLD data shows 47,273 homes delivered in 2025. Developers have about 122,000 units scheduled for 2027 and 111,000 for 2028 (DLD data, schedule as of September 2026). Handover dates often slip, so the real totals will likely be spread out, but the direction is clear.
The good news is that developers are already slowing down. About 66,600 units have been launched so far in 2026, against 167,425 in the whole of 2025 (DLD data). Fewer launches today should mean fewer competing handovers later in the decade.
What this means in practice: areas where thousands of similar apartments hand over at the same time will feel pressure on rents and resale prices. Prime locations with limited land, and villas, are better protected. If you buy off-plan, check how many units are completing around yours in the same year.
I don't see a bubble bursting. I see a market that ran very fast for five years and is now catching its breath.
For buyers, that is not bad news. A slower market means more choice and more room to negotiate. My rule is simple: buy where supply is limited, with a developer who delivers on time, and plan to hold for at least five years. Skip anything that only works if prices keep rising 20 percent a year.
Stefano Iannotti
Frequently asked questions
Is Dubai property in a bubble in 2026?
UBS rates Dubai as elevated risk, not high risk, and says the risk has eased since March. DLD data shows a cooling market, with fewer sales and prices per sq ft about 3 percent lower in August 2026 than a year earlier, rather than a sudden crash.
Will Dubai property prices fall?
Nobody can promise either way. The typical price per sq ft in August 2026 was about 7 percent below its April 2026 level (DLD data), and Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar has said he expects an adjustment of 5 to 10 percent. Areas with a lot of new supply are the most exposed.
Is now a good time to buy property in Dubai?
A slower market gives buyers more choice and more room to negotiate. The key is picking areas and projects with limited competing supply, a developer with a solid delivery record, and a plan to hold for several years.
What is the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index?
It is a yearly UBS study that scores housing markets in major world cities for bubble risk, using factors such as price-to-income, price-to-rent, lending and construction. In 2026 it covered 23 cities and rated only Zurich and Tokyo as high risk.
Planning a purchase of AED 2 million or more? It may also qualify you for residency. Read my guide to the Golden Visa through property.
Wondering what this means for your property?
Tell me the area or project you are looking at, and I'll share the real sales and supply numbers behind it. No obligation.
Stefano Iannotti
Real estate advisor in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, specialising in off-plan property for local and international buyers. RERA Broker Card No. 84308. Speaks Italian, English and Spanish.
- UBS: Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 (22 September 2026)
- The National: Dubai offers homebuyers strong value even as bubble risks remain, says UBS (24 September 2026)
- Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data: sales and rents August 2025, April 2026 and August 2026; yearly prices 2021 to 2025; completions and launches 2025 to 2026; completion schedule as of September 2026