Dubai off-plan market 2026: launches have halved. Here is what it means for buyers

The Dubai off-plan market 2026 got two new headlines this week. On 7 October, The National reported that off-plan homes made up 72 percent of home purchases in the third quarter, even as sales fell sharply. On 8 October, S&P Global Ratings said it expects the regional disruption to continue into 2027, Zawya reported.

So is off-plan still the right place to buy? I checked the official data on launches, handovers and prices. The short answer: developers have cut new launches by about half, and that changes how you should buy.

Dubai off-plan market 2026: the numbers

From 1 January to early October, developers launched projects with about 68,200 units. In the same period of 2025 it was about 130,800. That is 48 percent fewer, and back to the pace of 2023 (DLD data).

Source: Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data and project records, by quarter, July 2025 to September 2026. "Sales direct from developers" are first sales of all property types, mostly off-plan. Rounded to the nearest hundred.

Three things stand out. Launches fell by more than half between the first and second quarter, and have only partly come back: 66 new projects in the third quarter, against 147 a year earlier. Completions more than doubled against a year earlier. And in the second quarter, slightly more units were completed than launched.

One more comparison I find useful. In January to September 2026, developers sold about 87,800 units, more than the 68,200 or so they launched. In 2025 it was the other way round: about 108,300 sold and about 130,800 launched (DLD data). Developers are selling what they already have.

Why are developers launching less?

Because buyers became more careful. Home sales fell 38 percent in number and 47 percent in value in the third quarter against a year earlier, as buyers grew more cautious after the regional conflict began in late February, The National reported. The same report says activity in the coming months will depend partly on how many new projects are launched.

One caution: a purchase is often registered some time after it is agreed, so recent figures mix new and earlier deals, Gulf Business reported on 6 October.

Developers reacted in a sensible way: fewer launches, more finishing. About 37,500 units have been completed so far in 2026, against about 29,200 in the same period of 2025 (DLD data, 1 January to early October). I showed what that does to rents in my article on the Dubai rental market in 2026.

Are off-plan prices lower?

A little. The typical apartment sold by a developer cost AED 1,719 per sq ft in July to September, about 6 percent less than the AED 1,828 of a year earlier (DLD data, third quarter of 2025 and 2026).

Part of that is a change in what people buy, not a price cut: more homes in affordable areas such as Dubai South, which led developer sales in the third quarter with about 4,900 sales (DLD data). The whole market is in my Q3 market review.

S&P Global Ratings, citing industry reports, said prices fell 5 to 15 percent between the end of 2025 and September 2026, The National reported. It expects a gradual correction, not a rapid decline.

What about the homes still to come?

This is the number to watch. DLD project records show about 123,500 units with a stated handover date in 2027 and about 112,100 in 2028. Stated dates often slip: in the whole of 2025, about 46,900 units were actually completed (DLD data).

S&P said on 8 October that continued disruption, together with the homes due in 2027 and 2028, could speed up the price correction, above all for apartments bought mainly by investors. It also said prices could stabilise if the regional risk eases in 2027.

What it means if you are buying off-plan

• Pick the developer before the project. In a slower market, on-time delivery matters more than a launch-day offer. Ask what the developer has handed over in the last two years. My guide explains how buying off-plan works and how your money is protected.
• Look at projects already being built. With fewer launches, a good choice is often a project that is already under construction: you can see the progress and you wait less.
• Check what completes near you. Ask how many units are due in the same area in the same year.
• Negotiate the whole deal. Ask about the payment plan and what is included, not only the price. On off-plan, the agent's commission is always paid by the developer, never by you. All other costs are in my buying costs table.

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About the author

Stefano Iannotti

Real estate advisor in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, specialising in off-plan property for local and international buyers. RERA Broker Card No. 84308. Speaks Italian, English and Spanish.