Key takeaways
- The Dubai rental market 2026 is heading for a record: 298,984 leases were registered in freehold areas from January to September, 6.8 percent more than in 2025 (reported on 6 October 2026).
- September alone brought 48,639 leases. New leases were up 25.6 percent on a year earlier, renewals up 7.6 percent.
- More leases do not mean higher rents: the typical new apartment lease was AED 70,000 in September, about 4 percent lower than a year earlier, while renewals rose about 2 percent (DLD data).
- In four popular areas, a new 1-bedroom lease cost 9 to 17 percent less in July to September than a year earlier.
- For owners and buyers: the tenants are there, but they now compare and negotiate. Do your numbers on today's rents.
The Dubai rental market 2026 picture got a new headline this week. On 6 October, new figures showed that Dubai is on course for a record year of rental contracts, mid-east.info reported, even though property sales have slowed sharply since the spring.
So are rents going up? No. More people are signing leases, but new tenants are paying less than a year ago. Below I put both sides next to the official data and explain what it means for you.
Dubai rental market 2026: the record in numbers
In September, 48,639 rental contracts were registered in Dubai's freehold areas (the areas where foreigners can own property), 22.6 percent more than in August. New leases reached 25,345, up 25.6 percent on September 2025. Renewals reached 23,294, up 7.6 percent.
From January to September the total is 298,984 contracts, 6.8 percent more than in the same months of 2025. Last year's record was 377,926 for the full year. Dubai needs about 79,000 more leases in the last three months to beat it, and it has averaged about 100,000 a quarter so far.
Compare that with sales: the number of property sales fell 37 percent in July to September against a year earlier, as I showed in my Q3 market review. Fewer people are buying, but more are signing leases.
Are rents going up or down?
Down for new tenants, slightly up for tenants who stay. This is September for apartments:
| Apartments, September 2026 | Leases signed | Typical yearly rent | Rent vs September 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New leases | 20,204 (up 24%) | AED 70,000 | Down 4% |
| Renewals | 18,206 (up 8%) | AED 60,000 | Up 2% |
Source: Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data, apartment leases, September 2026 compared with September 2025. "Typical" is the median, the middle value. Rounded.
Tenants have noticed. Khaleej Times reported on 23 September that in July and August new leases outnumbered renewals for the first time in records going back to January 2023, and that rents on new leases for the same building and unit type were 15.3 percent lower than in January. Many tenants are moving home to pay less.
Which areas show the biggest change?
I checked 1-bedroom apartments in four popular areas:
| Area | New lease, Jul to Sep 2025 | New lease, Jul to Sep 2026 | Change | Renewal, Jul to Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) | AED 71,500 | AED 65,000 | Down 9% | AED 63,000 |
| Business Bay | AED 95,000 | AED 80,000 | Down 16% | AED 80,000 |
| Dubai Marina | AED 94,500 | AED 82,000 | Down 13% | AED 90,000 |
| Downtown Dubai | AED 120,000 | AED 100,000 | Down 17% | AED 110,000 |
Source: Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data, 1-bedroom apartment leases, July to September 2026 compared with July to September 2025. Typical (median) yearly rent, rounded. Every building and every unit is different.
Two things stand out. First, demand is not the problem: the number of new 1-bedroom leases rose in all four areas, by between 21 percent (JVC) and 44 percent (Business Bay).
Second, in Dubai Marina and Downtown a new tenant now pays less than a tenant who renews. A year ago it was the other way round.
Why are new rents lower?
Tenants have more choice. About 5,600 homes were handed over in September alone, across 22 projects, and about 14,200 in July to September (DLD data). Every new building needs tenants.
Rents had also climbed a long way. Apartment rents almost doubled between the end of 2020 and May 2026, and experts already expected softer rents on new contracts in high-supply areas such as JVC and Business Bay, Gulf News reported in July.
What it means if you own or plan to buy
- If your tenant renews: any increase needs at least 90 days' written notice and must fit the DLD rental index (Gulf News explains the rules). With new rents softer, a good tenant who stays is worth more than a small increase.
- If your unit is empty: price it on today's new leases, not on last year's. One empty month costs you about 8 percent of the year's rent.
- If you are buying to rent out: use today's rent on a new lease in your numbers. My guide to rental yields by area shows how to work it out. Rents in July to September were lower than the January to August figures in that guide, so run the numbers again.
- If you are buying off-plan: check how many homes will be handed over near yours in the same year. On off-plan, the agent's commission is always paid by the developer, never by you. All other costs are in my buying costs table.
A record year for leases and lower rents at the same time. It sounds like a contradiction, but it is simply a market with more tenants and even more choice.
This is why I always calculate with today's rent on a new lease, never with the best rent a building has ever seen. If the numbers still work at today's rent, the property is solid. And I would pick the unit a tenant chooses first: a good layout, a well-run building, a real view, close to what people need every day. When tenants can choose, quality is what keeps your property rented.
Stefano Iannotti
Frequently asked questions
Are rents in Dubai going down in 2026?
For new tenants, yes, modestly. The typical new apartment lease was AED 70,000 a year in September 2026, about 4 percent lower than a year earlier, while renewals rose about 2 percent, according to DLD data. In some popular areas, new 1-bedroom leases were 9 to 17 percent lower in July to September.
Is Dubai heading for a record year of rentals?
Yes, on current numbers. 298,984 rental contracts were registered in Dubai's freehold areas from January to September 2026, up 6.8 percent on the same months of 2025. The record is 377,926 for the whole of 2025, so about 79,000 more are needed in the last three months.
Can my landlord raise the rent at renewal in Dubai?
Only with at least 90 days' written notice before the lease ends, and only within the limits of the Dubai Land Department rental index. The allowed increase runs from zero to 20 percent, depending on how far your rent is below the market average. You can check your own case on the DLD website.
What do lower new rents mean for rental yields?
Gross yield is the yearly rent divided by the price, so a lower rent means a lower yield unless the price is lower too. Use today's rent on a new lease in that building, then take off the service charge and an empty month. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Buying a property to rent out?
Tell me your budget and the area you like. I'll show you today's real rents and prices from the DLD data, so you can decide with clear numbers. No obligation.
Stefano Iannotti
Real estate advisor in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, specialising in off-plan property for local and international buyers. RERA Broker Card No. 84308. Speaks Italian, English and Spanish.
- mid-east.info: Dubai real estate remains on track for new rental record (6 October 2026)
- Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data: apartment leases, new and renewed, September 2025 and September 2026; 1-bedroom apartment leases in Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, Dubai Marina and Downtown Dubai, July to September 2025 and 2026; homes handed over, September 2026 and July to September 2026; number of sales, July to September 2025 and 2026
- Khaleej Times: Dubai tenants move homes as new leases offer rents up to 15% lower (23 September 2026)
- Gulf News: Dubai tenants may get better rent deals in these areas this year (2 July 2026)
- Gulf News: How much can my landlord raise the rent in Dubai? (20 February 2026)