Dubai luxury property market: fewer $10 million sales, but villas are holding up

On 21 October, a new report covered by The National and Khaleej Times put a number on the summer slowdown in the Dubai luxury property market: 86 home sales of $10 million or more between July and September 2026.

That is 34 percent fewer than in the second quarter. But the full story is more interesting than the headline, and it matters if you are buying or selling at the top end.

What the Q3 2026 luxury numbers say

• Volume: 86 sales above $10 million, worth about AED 5.77 billion, against 131 in Q2 2026 and 103 in Q3 2025.
• The very top: 13 of them were above $25 million. They were about 15 percent of the deals but nearly a third of the value.
• Month by month: 36 sales in July, 32 in August, 18 in September. September was the quietest month, but its sales above $25 million were the biggest of the quarter.
• Prices: down 5 percent from Q2 to Q3 across ten prime neighbourhoods, the first quarterly fall since 2020. Palm Jumeirah is 9.1 percent lower than a year ago, at about AED 4,083 per sq ft.
• The reason: the report's authors call the ongoing regional conflict the biggest drag on activity, with its "stop-start" nature weighing on confidence.

Over the first nine months, sales above $10 million still reached 412, up from 357 a year earlier (Khaleej Times, 21 October 2026). A very strong first half is carrying the year.

Where Dubai's $10 million homes sold

Source: Khaleej Times, 21 October 2026. Values rounded.

Palm Jumeirah alone took about 31 percent of the deals and the quarter's biggest sale, at AED 260 million. Villas were 55 of the 86 sales. If you want to see where the next generation of island villas is coming from, my Palm Jebel Ali property guide has the prices and handover dates.

What the DLD data adds: villas held, apartments slowed

I checked the official registrations for homes sold at AED 36.7 million or more (about $10 million). The counts are a little lower than the report's, because the definitions are not the same, but the direction is clear.

Source: Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data, January to September 2025 and 2026. Typical price = median. Rounded.

Two things stand out. First, the luxury end fell much less than the market as a whole: all home sales in Dubai dropped from about 59,300 in Q3 2025 to about 37,400 in Q3 2026, around 37 percent lower (DLD data). Luxury sales above AED 36.7 million fell about 22 percent.

Second, the top-end buyer wants land and privacy. Villa sales are up about 25 percent over nine months, while apartment sales above AED 36.7 million are down about 19 percent. On Palm Jumeirah, villa sales fell from 84 to 52 between January and September (DLD data), so even the island is seeing fewer, bigger deals.

For the wider market picture, see my Dubai property market Q3 2026 update, and my honest view on whether Dubai is in a bubble.

What it means if you are buying a luxury home

• You have more time. Fewer competing buyers means fewer homes sold within days. Use it to compare, visit twice and check the service charges.
• There is room to negotiate on ready homes. With prime prices down 5 percent in a quarter, a seller who priced at the spring peak is more likely to listen.
• Pay for scarcity, not for the address alone. A frond villa with a wide beach or a plot in Emirates Hills is a different asset from a big apartment in a crowded tower.
• Count every cost. At this level, the 4 percent DLD fee alone is over AED 1.4 million. My guide to Dubai buying costs has every fee in one table.

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About the author

Stefano Iannotti

Real estate advisor in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, specialising in off-plan property for local and international buyers. RERA Broker Card No. 84308. Speaks Italian, English and Spanish.